How Do Tendencies Change on 3-0 Counts, and Should Batters Swing More Often?
Let’s look at the Statcast database again, this time examining 3-0 pitches. In the original article that I wrote introducing the database, I used the outcomes of 3-0 pitches as an example query. 3-0 pitches have always been a big deal in baseball. Batters commonly take a pitch on 3-0 (in fact 89% of the time). The thinking is that if a pitcher’s control is shaky enough to fall behind 3-0, he just might throw ball four, so the batter should make him prove that he can throw a strike. And if it ends up being a strike, you still have a hitter-friendly 3-1 count. I’ve noticed in recent years that it felt like batters were swinging on 3-0 more often. I remember Aaron Judge giving a quote (unfortunately I can’t find it) about how when he hits, he’s just looking to hit the best pitch of the at-bat, which is often on the 3-0 count. I will admit though that I’m surprised to see batters are still taking 3-0 pitches at a 89% rate. I would have guessed much lower, but for all I know this c...
