How Do Tendencies Change on 3-0 Counts, and Should Batters Swing More Often?

 Let’s look at the Statcast database again, this time examining 3-0 pitches. In the original article that I wrote introducing the database, I used the outcomes of 3-0 pitches as an example query.

3-0 pitches have always been a big deal in baseball. Batters commonly take a pitch on 3-0 (in fact 89% of the time). The thinking is that if a pitcher’s control is shaky enough to fall behind 3-0, he just might throw ball four, so the batter should make him prove that he can throw a strike. And if it ends up being a strike, you still have a hitter-friendly 3-1 count. I’ve noticed in recent years that it felt like batters were swinging on 3-0 more often. I remember Aaron Judge giving a quote (unfortunately I can’t find it) about how when he hits, he’s just looking to hit the best pitch of the at-bat, which is often on the 3-0 count. I will admit though that I’m surprised to see batters are still taking 3-0 pitches at a 89% rate. I would have guessed much lower, but for all I know this could still be a lower number compared to baseball in the past. This database is from 2019-2021.

Should batters be swinging on 3-0 more often? We can calculate how well batters hit on 3-0 pitches using the results of the second table. Batters are hitting .395 on 3-0 pitches (159 singles + 99 homers + 77 doubles + 4 triples, divided by 859, the total number of pitches in the table not including sac flies and errors, which aren’t counted as at-bats) with a slugging percentage of .839. We can also calculate from the first table that when a batter takes a pitch on 3-0, it results in a walk from ball four (or hit by pitch) 37% of the time, with a called strike of course being the other 63%. My first thought seeing that the batting average (.395, along with great damage of a .839 slugging) when the batter swings is higher than the on base percentage (.370) if he takes a pitch leads me to immediately think batters should swing more on 3-0.

Ok, so batters absolutely mash on 3-0 and taking the 3-0 pitch doesn’t result in a free base as much as I thought it would. But I don’t think the conversation ends right there. What if batters hit even better on 3-1 counts? What if it ends up in a walk just as much? The opportunity to hit well on 3-0 might not be worth the risk of getting out if we know good things also await at 3-1.

Batters are hitting .362 on 3-1 pitches and slugging .702. When taking on 3-1, they get on base via walk or HBP 62% of the time. The batting average is a bit lower, the slugging is way lower, but the walk rate is way higher. My guess is that most while many takes on 3-0 are auto-takes, meaning they determined they would take the pitch no matter what before it was thrown, I don’t think that’s the case for 3-1 pitches. The walk rate is probably higher because the batters are taking the pitch because their eye saw it as outside, not because they decided to not swing beforehand. Still, an overall walk rate of 25.58 on 3-1 pitches is a lot higher than I would have thought and I’m surprised to see that batters walk more on 3-1 than they do put it in play (22.14%). It could be argued though that not all 3-1 pitches are the same; let’s see what happens on 3-1 pitches where the batter previously took a strike on 3-0.

In this scenario, batters are hitting .352 and slugging .653. In this specific scenario, batters have hit worse than all 3-1 pitches as a whole. Is there any meaning behind that? I’m not so sure, but it’s still interesting to see.

One step further: all pitches after a batter takes a 3-0 strike. So rather than just the 3-1 pitch, this is every pitch in the rest of the plate appearance. I think this is the best way of representing what opportunity there is after taking a 3-0 strike to see if it was worth it to not swing. In plate appearances where a batter took a 3-0 strike, he would go on to...

I’m hoping I’m calculating everything correctly with numerators and denominator from what does and doesn’t count as an at-bat, but to my best calculation, in plate appearances where a batter takes a 3-0 strike, he would go onto hit for a .264 batting average, a huge .584 on base percentage, and a .475 slugging.

Conclusion

I think the best way for me to compare all these things apples to apples is to try my best to calculate a wOBA, or weighted on base average, for each of them. So to conclude, when batters swing on 3-0, they put the ball in play 43% of the time, where they hit for a .507 wOBA. When they take the 3-0 pitch, it’s a called strike 63% of the time, and a trip to first base the other 37%. In plate appearances where batters take a 3-0 strike, they go on to hit for a .475 wOBA. It’s certainly a win-win situation with no wrong answer—both wOBAs are so high and so close. However, the higher wOBA for swinging on 3-0 has me inclined to conclude that batters should do it more often and take some hacks—certainly more than the 11% they have been doing.

Pitch Selection by Count

What I want to see next is what pitch selection is like based on count. Are 3-0 pitches more enticing than 3-1 pitches?

66.78% of 3-0 pitches are four-seam fastballs, by far the most of any count (3-1 counts are second at 48.05%). Assuming a four-seam fastball is the pitch you want the most as a batter, the 3-0 count is your best friend. What about all types of fastballs? 95.13% of all 3-0 pitches are fastballs. It is very likely for a batter to see a fastball. If there was ever a time to lock in and sit on a pitch, that’s the situation. Once again, the 3-1 count is in second place at 78.68%.

I know I’m likely to see a fastball, but how likely am I to see a fastball down the middle, a real meatball? From querying my database, I can see that 9.91% of all 3-0 pitches are fastballs down the middle, and 8.27% for 3-1 pitches. What this tells me is that no matter the count, pitchers are trying their best not to throw a pitch down the middle.

How does the strike zone change based on count?

Here’s a bit of a detour from the question about swinging on 3-0. Does the strike zone change on a 3-0 count? You often hear that umpires are more generous on 3-0 counts. Do any other counts have apparent behaviors? Let’s look at pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (over 0.1 feet from the edges of home plate and strike zone top and bottom) and how often the umpire called strike.

It’s true. 3-0 pitches outside of the strike zone are called strikes 19% of the time, by far the most of any count. 0-2 pitches, the count the most pitcher friendly and opposite of 3-0, of course has the lowest number at 1.9%.