Fantasy Chronicles: Players I'm Big on For 2018
As I continue on my quest to master the world of
sabermetrics, there’s another thing I want to conquer: fantasy baseball. What’s
so great about fantasy is it uses the traditional counting stats we’ve always
used, such as hits, walks, strikeouts, runs, and so on, but we try to predict
and project the future using the advanced data we have available. Up until the
season, and maybe even throughout the season, I’m going to keep up this series
of me trying my best to draft the best team possible. Since I’m a positive guy,
I figure we’ll start with some players that I think will break out, bounce
back, or just be great in 2018.
I’ll focus especially on the player’s stats from the past
three seasons, and use stats such BABIP, xWOBA, various batted-ball metrics
from Statcast, walk rates, strikeout rates, FIP, left-on-base percentage, and
ADP. ADP (average draft position) is critical here because certain players become
steals based off having a value that exceeds where they rank in ADP. Since
Spring Training still hasn’t even started, ADP is sure to change, and ESPN hasn’t
opened up their fantasy website yet for drafting. To look up ADP, I used the
rankings from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, the same ADP that Steamer
projections use. With that being said, Steamer is the projection system that I use. I
avoided using any park adjusted stats since fantasy points don’t care where
someone plays. Playing time and consistency are critical to projections and to
fantasy of course, as owners are cautious when it comes to risky players that
are injury plagued or up-and-down. For reference, the average hitter in 2017
looked like this: a slash of .255/.324/.426, walk rate of 8.5%, strikeout rate
of 21.6%. Pitchers averaged a 4.36 ERA and 8.34 and 3.29 strikes and walks,
respectively, per nine innings. A normal BABIP is .300.
When talking about “fantasy points,” I’m referring to the
amount resulted from the formulas that the fantasy league that I was in last
year used. For hitters, points = total bases + home runs + BB + runs + HBP + RBI
+ stolen bases – caught stealings – K – errors. For pitchers, points = 3IP + 5(saves)
+ K + 3(Quality Start) + 3(Holds) - 2ER - BB - 3L – 5(blown saves) - H - HBP –
HR. A useful tool for me was comparing where a player ranked based off of ADP
versus projected Steamer fantasy points (I left out errors however since they
aren’t included with Steamer). I called this “net rank.” Now I got that out of
the way, let’s get started.
Greg Bird 1B
Red flags: Injury history, small body of work, first base
depth
What I like: Good at every league level, elite power stats
for 30+ homers, good discipline
ADP: 155
I think Bird is a pretty safe bet to be a 30 homer guy in
2018. In 94 career regular season games and 14 postseason games, Bird has hit
23 home runs. Simple math tells me that if he can play 150 games that he’ll
reach that nice round number. His career stats include his abysmal start to
2017 where he hit .100/.250/.200 with only one homer, and that was when he was
playing through a leg injury. When he’s played while healthy (to our knowledge)
he’s been great. It’s a small sample size sure, which is one major red flag,
but Statcast seems to like his power swing. An extreme flyball hitter in Yankee
Stadium, his average launch angle is 20.2 degrees and fly ball rate is 51.9%,
ranking near the top in the majors. His walk rate is above average, even
through the minor leagues. He can hit and the skill is there. The second red
flag is the reason why his first red flag in sample size exists: injuries. Bird
has had not one, but two major injuries. Bird comes with risk, but it’s all in
health and not talent. I’d take the risk on a late-round player.
Matt Carpenter 1B
Red flags: First base depth
What I like: Statcast-friendly, elite discipline, consistent
track record, BABIP rebound
ADP: 186
Statcast is a fan of the contact Carpenter creates, putting him at the 20th
best hitter according to xwOBA. He had the fourth best walk rate in 2017
(17.5%) and has been well above league average for several years now. A .377
career OBP is great of course but he’s now become a lock for 20 homers. Combine
his consistency with the fact his 2017 BABIP of .274 is 28 points below his
average BABIP from the past three years, and I think Carpenter is a great pick
for perhaps an even better 2018. The only downside I can think of for Carpenter
is that there are several first basemen better than him. Steamer has him projected
as having the 15th highest OPS among first basemen. Positions play a
big part in who you draft but Carpenter still has a net rank of 47 while coming with almost no risk.
Kyle Schwarber OF
Red flags: Small sample, inconsistency, strikeouts
What I like: Potential, that power
ADP: 185
Kyle Schwarber’s popularity reminds me of Lil Wayne’s:
Carter 3 dropped and everyone loved him, then his career declined and he got
overhated, and we kind of like him again today. After every Cubs fan’s lovefest for
Schwarber being the best thing ever, people started underrating him during his
first full season last year. It’s not often you see a player hit 30 bombs and
get sent down to the minors in the same season, but it happened. There were ups
(.903 OPS in 65 games after being called up) and there were downs (.673 OPS in
64 games before being sent down) but the skill is still apparent. Schwarber is
definitely a “three-true outcomes” type guy, with K and BB rates both well
above the average. Statcast has him putting good contact when he does make it;
15.1 barrels per batted ball ranked 13th in baseball last year.
Daniel Murphy 2B
Red flags: Moderate injuries
What I like: Elite offense
ADP: 67
There’s a lot of great second basemen in 2018 which is quite
the change compared to a few years ago. When it comes to offense though, four particular guys stand out from the pack: Altuve, Ramirez, Dozier, and our man Murphy.
The ADP for those guys? 2, 20, and 67. Altuve and Ramirez are great of course
but being able to get a guy like Murphy at 67 is a steal, especially
considering there are other second basemen
between him and Ramirez (Gordon, Dozier, Schoop). Dozier, Altuve, and
Ramirez have played almost every game each of the past two years, while Murphy
has missed 38 games. Out of these four guys, Murphy has had the highest OPS
over the past two seasons (surprisingly even higher than MVP Altuve). He can
absolutely rake, and I suspect the fact that those other guys are better players than Murphy (bad, bad
defense) is why his ranking is so low. His stiff neck and sore buttocks (Ha!)
injuries were only day-to-day and his last DL stint was in 2015. I think it’d
be worth passing up Altuve and maybe even Ramirez to get Murphy later.
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Red flags: None
What I like: Consistently elite
ADP: 25
It’s obviously no secret that Rizzo is great. At an ADP of
25, he’s nothing close to a sleeper. However, I still think Rizzo can be a
steal for a fantasy team in 2018. Projections love him; Steamer has him
projected to be the third most valuable position player in fantasy points in
2018. This isn’t too shocking but I can guarantee you wouldn’t expect Rizzo to
be that good. I got curious to see
where Rizzo ranked in my fantasy league last season and sure enough, there he
was at number six among position players. It’s understandable why fantasy loves
Rizzo. He hits bombs, drives in runs, walks a lot, and doesn’t strike out much.
Besides being great, he’s got a large sample size of consistency which makes
sense why projections like him. He’s now at four straight seasons of 30+ homers
and a .385+ OBP, as well as playing 160, 155, and 157 games respectively over
the past three seasons. Rizzo’s just about the best low-risk, high-reward
player that won’t get picked up in the first round.
Carlos Santana 1B
Red flags: First base depth
What I like: Consistency, great K% and BB%
ADP: 173
Santana just got a huge deal from the Phillies that’ll be
paying him $20 million a year so maybe the word is out that he’s a great
player. Santana’s qualities are a bit like a less-great Rizzo. He’s played 150+ games each of the past five years along with a career walk rate of 15.2 % and a
strikeout rate of 17.0 %. Santana took a step back in 2017 after his fantastic
2016, but for what it’s worth, Steamer has him projected as being the 20th
best position player. It seems crazy but he was 26th in 2017. The
reason Steamer is so big on him is because of the lack of risk that comes with
his consistency. Because of that, I’m big on him too. Santana’s great and
low-risk but the red flag of the depth at his position meets us again. If you
can find a way to fit that many stacked first basemen on your list, good for
you, because Santana has tremendous upside for someone ranked so low (net
ranking of 88).
Jeff Samardzija SP
Red flags: That gross ERA last year
What I like: Consistent high innings, high K, low BB
ADP: 141
Shark was one of ten players to pitch 200+ innings and
strikeouts in 2017. His high strikeout rate was complimented by a league-low
walk/9 of 1.9. Great, he pitches innings, strikes out lots of batters,
and rarely walks them. Statcast ranks him as the 23rd best starter
in xWOBA (minimum of 400 batters faced), which estimates the quality of hitting
against him based off the quality of contact he induces. Really, almost all of
the advanced average stats, such as FIP and SIERA, have him ranked highly (13th
and 15th, respectively). The only stat that doesn’t like him? The
almighty ERA, to which he had an abysmal 4.42. Since his breakout year in 2014,
his ERA has flip-flopped every year between good and bad. It seems pretty odd
that traditional stats could underrate him multiple seasons, but perhaps 2015
was just a fluke bad year and the guy we saw in 2014, 2016, and supposed to see in 2017 were the real
guy. Fangraphs talked a lot about him in 2017 to get to the bottom of what was
causing the ERA issue, and right now I’m hoping it’s just because of an unusually
low left-on-base rate. His strange great-season-but-bad-face-value season
was very similar to Masahiro Tanaka’s. Tanaka, however, pitched some of the
best baseball of his career late in the season: in his last regular season
start and three post season starts, Tanaka had a 0.67 ERA with 33 K to just 3
walks. Tanaka’s going to get picked up much earlier than Samardzija, but I
think Shark can be just as great.
Lance McCullers SP
Red flags: Injury history
What I like: Advanced stats, early career ERA
ADP: 154
I’ve been big on Lance for a while now. I was expecting the
man with the nastiest curve in the game to put together a great 2017, and for a
while he was doing just that. The standards were already high after pitching a 3.22
ERA in 206.2 innings to start the first two years of his career. Through his
first 14 starts in 2017, McCullers put up a sparkling 2.53 ERA. Of course this
was enough for Lance to make his first All-Star team. In his final eight starts,
he put up an atrocious 8.03 ERA. Was he not the pitcher we thought he was? I’m honestly
not worried about that stretch of bad starts. His season K/9 was still north of
10. His FIP of 3.10 was not only way better than his overall 4.25, but also in
line with his FIPs of 3.26 and 3.00 to start his career. SIERA is a similar
stat that tries to eliminate even more factors outside of pitcher talent; it
had McCullers ranked 9th out of pitchers with at least 100 innings
pitched. Even xWOBA approves of him (.288, 24th best with 400+ at-bats
against). It’s possible BABIP played a role.
His pitching produced a .410 BABIP during that slump which would be
insanely high for anyone, let alone him with his normal-looking career BABIP. He
also had a dip in left-on-base percentage. The biggest factor in this slump
though was his health. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that he went on the
DL twice during this stretch for lower-back discomfort. While his bad back explains
his struggles, it also highlights his injury history red flag. In 2016, he had
arm issues and 2017 had the lingering back problems. McCullers had a subpar ERA
in 2017 but make no mistake about his talent. The only risk in him is from
health.
Ian Kinsler 2B
Red flags: Age, second base depth
What I like: Consistency, BABIP rebound
ADP: 191
Kinsler’s been around for a while and has really had a good
career. He’s no longer the 30/30 guy he was in Texas, but Kinsler really kept
his game to a high level with Detroit. 2016 was a renaissance year for him at age
34; a power spike of 28 homers resulted in a .288/.348/.484 slash-line. Kinsler
took a step back in 2018, mostly in a 52 point drop in batting average. I think
Kinsler may have been a BABIP victim. I’ve been throwing that stat around here,
but I think it’s really effective to compare a season’s BABIP compared to a
much larger sample that better represents the quality of contact that player
produces. Kinsler’s 2017 BABIP was much lower than his cumulative BABIP from
2015-2017, by 52 points to be exact. Kinsler definitely isn’t a .236 hitter.
More promising was his 9% walk rate, his highest since 2011. I’m big on Kinsler because of his consistency and the drastic BABIP difference, however, with
second base depth, his numbers don’t quite pop out as much as they use to. Add
the fact that he’ll be 36 and I start to worry his rebound will come with some downs
as well. There’s several guys I’d take over Kinsler but if you can’t get one of
them, be happy you can have this guy because he’ll go late in drafts. Because
of his low ranking, Kinsler has a net ranking of 50. A particular player that
made me more intrigued in Kinsler was Rougned Odor, who was very, very bad in
2018. Odor was like an extreme Kinsler; Odor has more power, walks way less,
and strikes out way more. Because of that, his offense is very BABIP dependent,
and his 2017 BABIP was much lower than expected, calling for a rebound also.
Steamer likes Odor a lot for 2018, especially with his power. Even though he’s
much younger than Kinsler, I still feel reluctant on Odor in 2018.
Shin-Soo Choo OF
Red flags: Injuries
What I like: Consistently good
ADP: 253
Choo’s been one of my favorite players for a while now. He’s
the guy you need to go after at the way end of the draft because his value is
seriously underrated compared to his ADP. Last season, Choo ranked 66th
in fantasy points among position players, ahead of other outfielders such as
Domingo Santana and Adam Jones. Steamer
has him projected as the 78th best in 2018. Overall, it’s a steal to
draft the 78th best when he’s 154th in ADP among position
players. Choo’s slash-line of .261/.357/.423 in 2017 isn’t too impressive but
the counting stats look nice; 22 homers, 96 runs, 12 steals, and 77 walks. The
only red flag that comes with Choo is the fact that he played only 48 games in
2016 due to four separate trips to the disabled list. That lost season was
sandwiched between two healthy good seasons for Choo, and as a late pick, there’s
very little risk.
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Red flags: Age, durability
What I like: Body of work, rebound year
ADP: 94
Of course once the best hitter in baseball, Cabrera now
enters his age 35 season. Miggy had a down year last year, but as recently as
2016 he was still one of the best in the game. That year, he slashed .316/.393/.563.
The year before? .338/.440/.534. The advanced stats say that Cabrera still
should have been great in 2017. Slashing .249/.329/.399, it was the first time
he was ever below average in this game. His wOBA was .313, while his xwOBA
expected him to be the 17th best with a .382. He had one of the
biggest BABIP dips in baseball, putting up a .292 in 2017. Cabrera usually has
a very high BABIP, typical of elite hitters like him, and his average BABIP
from 2015 to 2017 was all the way up at .337. Cabrera is one of 12 first
baseman projected to go in the top 100, so just like other first basemen I’ve
talked about, there are better options than him. Cabrera is surely still a
great hitter so don’t be hesitant to have him as one of your first basemen on
your team.
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