2020 Fantasy: Pitchers
Dinelson Lamet
Age: 27, Team: San Diego Padres
ADP: 130.8, Projected points: 348
Lamet has elite strikeout stuff. As a rookie in 2017, he
posted a 28.7 K%. Coming back in 2019, after missing all of 2018 with Tommy
John surgery, he had an even better 33.5%. Lamet’s strikeout prowess has been
on display his whole career, but it hasn’t translated into major success yet;
his ERA has been over 4.00 in each of his two seasons and FIP and other
alternatives don’t suggest a breakout is due. The hope is that someone with
skillset of Lamet is prime breakout candidate. It’s hard not to get excited
about, although the early ADP is troubling for someone with risky upside. At
worst, he’ll continue to struggle to go more than five innings per start, pitch
to an ERA over 4.00, and rack up lots and lots of strikeouts. I think his floor
is still high enough to warrant the gamble on a breakout. I’m excited to see what
he can do in his first full season.
Highlight: Watch him strikeout 14 Brewers
Tyler Glasnow
Age: 26, Team: Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 71.2, Projected points: 349
Glasnow has been hyped up for a while now, but it’s really
remarkable how much the actual results have changed in the matter of 60.2
innings. Glasnow dominated in the minor leagues for the Pittsburgh Pirates with
his huge 6’8” frame and triple-digit fastball. In 2018, he had moderate, but
promising, success with the Pirates and with his new team, the Rays, posting a 4.27
ERA in 111.2 innings with a 29.1 K% and 49.8 GB%. Anytime a pitcher can
strikeout that many batters while producing that many groundouts, it grabs your
attention. His 2019 was absolutely remarkable, although in just 60.2 innings: 1.78
ERA, 2.26 FIP, 33 K%, 6.1 BB%, and only four home runs allowed. You can’t get better
than that. The limited amount of innings was due to a forearm strain that set
him out for a major part of the season. It’s comforting to know that Glasnow
dominated both before and after the injury and that it’s his only injured list
trip in his career. The real concern is the sample size of this success is so
small. If Glasnow can be even close to walking as few batters and giving up as
few homers while continuing to strike everyone out, he’ll be one of the best
pitchers in baseball. What we saw in that sample is enough to make me take him
early in the draft.
Lance McCullers Jr.
Age: 26, Team: Houston Astros
ADP: 188.6, Projected points: 284
It’s crazy for me to think McCullers is still only 26 years
old. He and his beauty of a curveball have been in the big leagues since 2015. I’ve
always been big on McCullers due to his groundball and strikeout prowess from
that curveball. At this point, we have a good idea of what McCullers is, as he’s
been remarkably consistent. He’s had an ERA in the 3.00’s three of his four
seasons, and the one year he didn’t, his ERA underperformed his FIP by an entire
run. His career GB% of 54.6% makes him one of the best groundball pitchers and it
limits a lot of damage that can be done against him. That skill probably gets
shadowed by his strikeout skill, at 26.9% for his career led by his curveball
that he threw 46.6% of the time in 2018. The fact that McCullers is coming off
of Tommy John surgery isn’t overly concerning; his effectiveness should be fine
and I’ll accept an innings limit when I now know the season will be shortened
by Corona virus. What is concerning is his overall injury history, way beyond
just his 2018 Tommy John surgery. He reached the injured list in 2016 with a
shoulder injury and in 2017 with a back injury. The talent is undeniable.
However, McCullers is the ultimate injury risk with tremendous upside pick in
fantasy. In all seriousness, I believe he’s a great pick at his ADP with a
potential shortened MLB season. His late ADP is certainly due to his innings
limit but it won’t be as much of a concern.
Highlight: Compilation of that curveball I keep hyping up
Jesus Luzardo
Age: 22, Team: Oakland Athletics
ADP: 125.6, Projected points: 275
Steamer doesn’t seem as confident in Luzardo as others do for
his rookie season. Perhaps we’re excited from seeing other top prospects dominate
from the moment they’re called up (Buehler, Soroka, etc.), and it’s hard not to
see Luzardo’s minor league numbers and not anticipate his rookie season.
Luzardo will be in the Opening Day rotation, which gives us all a chance to
draft him rather than compete for him on the waiver wire. Here are those MiLB
numbers that I mentioned: 2.53 ERA in 195.2 innings, 29.7 K%, and 5.4 BB%. With
that, Fangraphs ranks him as the 6th top prospect in baseball. There’s
no telling how that’ll translate to the big leagues (evidently Steamer thinks
it won’t be utter dominance from the start) but it’s hard not to gawk at his minor
league stats. His (very brief) 12 innings of excellence in 2019 have to instill
some confidence as well. The ADP is early for a rookie but the upside is too
much for me to ignore. While the team claims there’ll be no innings limit, I
think most people aren’t buying it. Once again, however, I think the Corona
virus will soften any innings concerns.
Highlight: Pitching great in relief in the AL Wild Card Game
Age: 27, Team: Houston Astros
ADP: 280, Projected points: 234
James had a 2018 that caught everyone’s attention, making him a popular sleeper for 2019. 2019 didn’t work out so great for him. However, we’re all back on the hype for 2020, this time as the Astros’ potential number 5 starter. In 61.1 innings, James had a 4.70 ERA while giving up lots of hard contact (10 homers, 39.2 hard-hit rate) and struggling with control (13.9 BB%). The bright side is that he had a 3.98 FIP, tremendous Statcast expected statistics, and his 37.6 K% was even better than 2018. James is worth taking as one of your last picks in the draft as someone with the skillset to be a good pitcher.
Highlight: Compilation of his 100 mph fastball
Giovanny Gallegos
Age: 28, Team: St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 226, Projected points: 223
Closers frustrate me every year in fantasy. There are maybe
five who seem to be guaranteed greatness and you must select them early in the
draft ahead of starters who will give you way more points. It just stinks. Nevertheless,
with nine pitcher slots and two pitcher bench slots in my fantasy league, along
with a limit of 12 games started a week, relievers are a must. I thought I hit
it big last year drafting Jose Leclerc late as my number one closer with Jordan
Hicks as my late round pick. Leclerc struggled and Hicks pitched well but
briefly before Tommy John surgery. I’m not sure who I want my number one guy to
be this year (Jose Leclerc looks nice at 196 ADP but I’d expect more 2019
Leclerc than 2018 Leclerc. Edwin Diaz is primed for a bounce-back at 314 projected
points but it feels silly drafting someone at 124 ADP when they had a 5.59 ERA
last year), but I really like Gallegos as my late round pick. Gallegos isn’t
officially the team closer, but he was the best reliever on the Cardinals last
year, one of the best relievers in baseball, and no doubt the best option to
close this year. In 2019, Gallegos had a 2.31 ERA, 19 holds, and great rates of
33.3 K% and 5.7 BB%. Someone with those stats will likely be closing games this
season.
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