2020 Fantasy: Position Players

Heading into the draft, it's always important to me to look out for players who may breakout, bounce back, are a safe bet, and everything in between. To start, I have eight players: two who were breakout players from last year, two rookies looking to impress into 2020, a player coming off a major injury, and three old reliables who always get drafted late. Enjoy!

Luis Arraez

Positions: 2B/OF, Age: 23, Team: Minnesota Twins

ADP: 275.4, Projected points; 343

Arraez went under-the-radar in 2019. I think most of it has to do with the volume of great rookies in 2019, but part of it has to be his play style. Arraez has close to no power, hardly ever strikes out, and has great contact skills. That skill set is unique enough, let alone for someone who played for the all-time home run hitting team, the 2019 Minnesota Twins. In 2019, Arraez slashed .334/.399/.439 in 92 games, all while walking at an above average rate (9.8%) and an even lower K rate (7.9%). His batting average, on-base skills, and low K rate make him a really valuable player in points leagues. I understand that his 2019 feel a bit fluky; how can anyone look at a .334 average and not expect regression? The thing is, those looking to draft Arraez are searching through more than just his brief 2019 major league season. Arraez always posted similar batting averages in the minors, always had comparably high BABIPs, and always had a low K rate with a similar walk rate. If Arraez’s 92 major league games aren’t convincing, here are his career minor league numbers: .331/.385/.414 and walk and K rates of 7.7% and 8.81%, respectively. Looks pretty similar right? I’d love to draft him once I get into the 200s in the draft.

Gio Urshela

Positions: 3B, Age: 28, Team: New York Yankees

ADP: 236.8, Projected points: 310

Urshela was one of biggest surprises of 2019. He hit .314/.355/.534 in 132 games for the Yankees out of nowhere. He was great for me in fantasy, replacing the not-so-great Maikel Franco on my roster on June 14^th. At that point he was hitting .303/.357/.455. He hit .322/.354/.587 the rest of the way. I understand that Urshela was just such an absurd breakout, but it seems odd that someone who performed well last year (349 fantasy points) could get drafted so late. Heading into spring training, the Yankees have made it clear that third base is his position to lose, with 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Miguel Andujar looking for playing time around the diamond. That being said, the two are going for around the same ADP. Steamer has him projected to be a little below replacement level, which I completely get why. He wasn’t on anyone’s radar before 2019. The sample size of good Urshela is small. The .349 BABIP is asking for some regression, but Statcast had him at a .294 expected batting average, which is still great. I still think he can hit for a good average. What about the power? His 17.5% HR/FB ratio is a bit above league average of 15.3%. Statcast has him in the 60^th and 76^th percentiles for hard-hit rate and exit velocity. I’m not sure if the power or the average are bigger question marks but I think he’s the type of gamble worth it at that late in the draft. It’ll be important to read any announcements about playing time throughout Spring Training.

Note: Urshela serves as a nice alternative to J.D. Davis of the Mets, who is a popular pick heading into 2020. Davis and Urshela put up similarly great seasons in 2019 as third basemen. Davis has the minor league track record, where he crushed it with the Astros, as well as the gawdy Statcast metrics in 2019. To acquire him will come with a tradeoff, however. His 186 ADP is much higher than Urshela’s.

Shin-Soo Choo

Position: OF, Age: 37, Team: Texas Rangers

ADP: 266.6, Projected points: 374

Choo’s ADP is so low no doubt because of his age, and that’s how it has been the past three years. Once again, I’m looking to draft Choo for the third year in a row. One day his age will get to him and it’ll hurt me, but we shall see. In the meantime, he has aged gracefully. In 2017, he slashed .261/.357/.423 in 149 games. In 2018, he slashed .264/.377/.434 (and even made his first All-Star team!) in 146 games. In 2019, he hit .265/.371/.455 in 151 games. He really has been remarkably consistent. His K% has gradually increased, and it is really hard to ignore the fact that he’s 37. Another concern is platooning. Choo has always crushed righties and struggled against lefties, and 2019 was the first time it felt like Choo was sat against lefties occasionally. He still got plenty of playing time, so I’m not too worried. He’s also been someone who performs much better in the first half, but even considering that, I can always sell him high if I feel a decline is imminent. His 395 fantasy points last season was great for where I drafted him. Even factoring in age decline, I think the value he’ll put up will be great for I can draft him. The last thing about Choo that’s notable is his Statcast profile from last season. We’ve always known that Choo is consistent, that he hits for 20ish homers, that he gets on-base with a good walk rate and his aptness for getting hit by pitches. Last season, though, Choo really smoked the ball. He was in the 95^th percentile for hard hit rate and 89^th percentile for exit velocity.

Carlos Santana

Position: 1B, Age: 34, Team: Cleveland Indians

ADP: 131, Projected points: 481

Carlos Santana is another oldie who I always try to have on my team. Guys who hit for power, walk a lot (like a lot), and don’t strike out much don’t exactly grow on trees. Meanwhile, Santana almost always has a late ADP. I’m not really sure why. I think people in my league have caught on; I look to draft Santana every year but someone really reached last year and drafted him 109^th overall. Like I said earlier, it’s not a major surprise that he does so well in a points league. Even “reaching” to draft him early in the 100’s feels like a solid choice. The only thing that concerns me about drafting him is that he was too good in 2019. Santana walked 108 times, struck out 108 times, had a .397 OBP, and had a resurgent 34 homers. I have doubts that he could sustain that power to lead to another 543-point season like he did in 2019, but it’s certainly going to lead him to getting drafted earlier this year. I may have to reach more than anticipated to draft him. What point is too early? First basemen like Pete Alonso are getting drafted way earlier. I’m hoping I can draft him right before the 100’s.

Anthony Rizzo

Position: 1B, Age: 30, Team: Chicago Cubs

ADP: 58.2, Projected points: 536

Rizzo, like Carlos Santana, is another player perfect for points leagues. He hits for power and doesn’t strikeout much to compensate for it. He walks almost as much as he strikes out, and we factor in his ability to get on base via HBP, the points really start racking up. Rizzo has the track record of a great player; he’s been great for six years now. After all that, unlike Santana, he’s still only 30. He’s great, he’s consistent, and he’s averaged 152 games played over those six great seasons that I mentioned. Really, he’s just about as low of a risk you can have in fantasy baseball. For someone who is so great, he’s ADP has always been later than expected. If he’s still available in 40’s (maybe even earlier), I’m picking him with no hesitation.

Andrew McCutchen

Position: OF, Age: 33, Team: Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 215, Projected points: 390

McCutchen is a big name in baseball, but because of what he used to be. He isn’t nearly the same guy anymore. It’s been a long time since he was that guy. The modern McCutchen, I feel like, is still a great player in his own right, but it’s probably that perceived decline that has padded his ADP to make him so enticing to me. This season has another factor, something that has pushed him into the 200’s before getting drafted: he tore his ACL in 2019, ending his season after 59 games. And because of that, he's expected to miss the start of the season, really pushing back his ADP. Before the ACL tear, he had been remarkably healthy, playing in 150+ games for eight of his eleven career seasons. As far as his talent, McCutchen still boasts a nice OBP as a leadoff hitter with power. He’s always had a very good walk rate, and his K rate has settled to about league average. McCutchen started walking like crazy with the Yankees in 2018, which continued with Phillies as a career high 16.4%. In those brief 59 games, he even hit 10 homers. I truly think his power is ageing well, especially now that he’s in Philly. I’ll be all over the news regarding his readiness, which currently stands as sometime in April. Everyone knows his talent; the gamble is only on how soon we think it'll take for him to get back and if he'll be the same guy. At his ADP, I'm feeling risky.

Max Kepler

Position: OF, Age: 27, Team: Minnesota Twins

ADP: 132, Projected points: 459

Purely looking at projections versus ADP, Kepler’s got to be one of the bigger steals you can get after pick 100. I think all of baseball was shocked to see him (along with many other players of course) launch 36 homers last year. Kepler’s 2019 was sneaky good: along with those 36 homers, his 16.5% walk rate boosted his fantasy points to 467, and his presence in a power Twins lineup helped with 90+ RBI and runs each. In all honesty, my first reaction is to be surprised that Steamer is such a fan of him heading into 2020. Was his 2019 that much to sway projections? Looking into his stats, Kepler seemed to be the same player in 2018. That was the year his K and walk rates really turned around. In fact, they were even better in 2018 than in 2019. Even his groundball/flyball percentages bode similarity: 37.8/46.2 in 2018 versus 36.1/46.6 in 2019 (that 46.6% by the way was the fifth highest among qualified hitters last season). Of course the biggest and obvious difference in 2018 was that he hit only 20 homers then to 36 now. What changed, if not his approach? Statcast metrics do show improvement, but nothing crazy. Skepticism will probably arise about the role the juiced ball played in his power. After all, his home run/fly ball ratio nearly doubled from 9.9% to 18% in 2019. Changes in the baseball from 2017 to 2018 (from juiced ball to no juiced ball) have left an impression on breakout power hitters to fans due to the inconsistencies in the game. I’m willing to risk it at that ADP, especially considering his other consistent skills. Another thing: Kepler will be leading off for one of the best offenses in baseball.

Gavin Lux

Position: 2B, Age: 22, Team: Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 146.4, Projected points: 308

Lux has been one of the top prospects in baseball for a bit now. He’s killed in the minor leagues, especially in Triple A (.347/.421/.607) before ending his season briefly with the Dodgers. The big difference between Lux and some other top prospects who played part of 2019 (such as Bo Bichette) is simple: Lux struggled. He slashed .240/.305/.400 and struck out a bunch, something he never did in the minors. Bichette played great and appropriately is rewarded with a much higher ADP. Bichette, however, was never the hitter Lux was in the minor leagues. Keston Hieura is someone drafted much higher as well, albeit his strong performance was in 84 games. Luis Robert is being drafted higher, and hasn’t made his big league debut yet even. Anyways, it’s clear that Lux’s lowered ADP is due to his 2019 struggles, which is fair, but I’d like to think Lux’s 23 games show a pretty minimal reflection of what he can be. After all, it’s only 23 games. If Lux had a better season than Robert, would anyone be surprised? No. Both guys are raved about. We are confident in Robert’s nonexistent major league experience, just like how we’re confident in Lux despite a tiny sample of 23 bad games. If Lux had a better season than all the guys mentioned here, would anyone be surprised? Once again, no.