2021 Yankees Offseason Outlook Part 1: Year in Review

 In some ways, the Yankee season was a tale of two halves. The first half saw a 46-42 record that had a lot of fans seriously concerned about the state of the team. The team had just a .236 batting average (ranked 17^th in baseball), .323 on base percentage (9^th), and a meager .394 slugging percentage (17^th). On top of the hitting woes, there was gut-punch after gut-punch loss, such as the sweep against the Tigers, the Jared Walsh grand slam game, the one-hitter in Seattle, the Subway Seriesat Yankee Stadium, and the Jose Altuve walk-off in Houston.

The second half was much more productive and put the Yankees back on track towards the postseason. A 46-27 record will do that. However, the offensive performance was still concerning; clutch play and resilience to win one-run games is what really drove this stretch. In the second half the Yankees still hit just .239 (25^th) with a .322 on base (13^th) and .422 slugging percentage (14^th). Aside from occasional hot streaks from certain players and a run of small-ball during the team’s second COVID-19 outbreak, the offense was really just Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton carrying the team as much they could.

Almost as if it were a “monkey paw” moment, fans finally got to see a healthy year of Judge and Stanton together and the results were glorious. Stanton slashed .273/.354/.516 with 35 homers and put together a crazy highlight reel of clutch hits. Judge had perhaps his finest season since his rookie year, slashing .287/.373/.544 with 39 homers. Both players also lowered their strikeout rates to more respectable numbers.

Even though the offense continued to remain suboptimal through the second half, several mind-boggling issues plagued the first half that put a damper to the team’s ability to win games. Often times the Yankees were not putting out their best lineup beyond just typical off-days with “punt” lineups. The Yankees refused to play Giancarlo Stanton at all in the outfield in the first half, even going an entire series in Philadelphia without starting him. The team was getting outs on the bases and hitting into double plays at an alarming rate, and while that improved in the second half, it remained an issue. Ultimately, however, it needs to be emphasized that the team’s ability to score runs was not good enough regardless of these issues. The Yankees run differential ended at +42, a metric more indicative of an 86 win team rather than 92.

Pitching was a major strength, producing the fourth most WAR among all teams. Gerrit Cole had a rough transition post-sticky ban and then again to end the season after a hamstring injury, but ultimately will finish second in Cy Young voting. Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon had solid seasons after slow starts, Jordan Montgomery was promising in his first full season since 2017, and Nestor Cortes Jr. was a breakout performer. The bullpen had several inexplicable losses and wasn’t the strength it used to be, but still was strong and one of the best despite an overly heavy workload and lack of run support.

There has been a lot of discussion about the reversal of promise since the first “baby bomber” season of 2017, but I believe it is more recent than that. The Yankees made big improvements heading into 2018 and had a great 100 win year, but ran into a 108 win Boston team. The Yankees improved again in 2019 and won 103 games and had their best chance at ring yet, but couldn’t get past Houston, arguably the only better that year. 2020 was the first year that felt like a major step backwards, and the excitement for a potential Cole-Severino-Paxton-Tanaka rotation quickly soured during the 60-game season and it was clear the Yankees were not a championship contending team. For the most part, the same team was brought back for 2021, and they took an even bigger step back. Aaron Boone was quoted as saying other teams have “closed the gap” on the Yankees; it’s true and it’s concerning. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Rays are all scary, and if the Yankees are planning on competing, let alone excelling in the playoffs, they need to improve to move and stay ahead.

The list of Yankees free agents isn’t as daunting as it has been in the past, and certainly not nearly as daunting as the 2023 free agent class of Judge, Sanchez, Gallo, and Chapman. The Yankees who will become free agents this offseason are Corey Kluber, Andrew Heaney, Anthony Rizzo, and Adam Warren, while Brett Gardner and Joely Rodriguez have club options. Darren O’Day has a mutual option. The Yankees were serious about getting below the luxury tax in 2021 and figure to be big spenders now that their penalty reset and anticipate a higher threshold with a new collective bargaining agreement.