2021 Yankees Offseason Outlook Part 2: Team Weaknesses- Down Years on Offense

 Some of the weaknesses that are going to be later addressed were compromised heading into the year because we knew those guys were good hitters—until they weren’t. An alarming number of Yankees players took a huge step back compared to their 2019-2020 production: Clint Frazier, Giovanny Urshela, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks, and most notably Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu.

Clint Frazier

In 108 games from 2019-2020, Clint Frazier hit for a 126 OPS+, while in 2021 he hit for a 76 OPS+ in 66 games before being shut down for the season due to neurological problems and dizziness. Between Frazier’s down year and a more crowded outfield of Gallo, Judge, a returning Hicks, and a possible return of veteran Brett Gardner, I don’t envision Frazier playing a big role on this team in 2022. With his trade value at an all-time low, I fully anticipate him starting the season in the minor leagues but because of his first year in arbitration, he is a non-tenure candidate. I could be completely off-base here though. He is under control for three more years.

Giovanny Urshela

Gio Urshela hit for a 134 OPS + in his Yankee tenure prior to hitting for a 96 OPS+ in 2021. Injuries also riddled his year, and you have to wonder if it contributed to his poor production, as well as playing out of position at shortstop for a chunk of the year. Urshela still displayed good power (14 homers in 116 games) but his plate discipline plummeted (4.5% walk rate, 24.7% K rate). If the Yankees were to move on from Urshela in some way, you would have to imagine LeMahieu would take over third base full time. His defense took a step back as well, making 10 errors in 96 games. Defensive metrics have never loved Urshela, but the eye test has shown me that he is capable of making plays at that position that LeMahieu is not. Urshela was such a big part of the team in prior years that I think it would be hard to move on from him and you have to cross your fingers that he can find the magic back. I anticipate him being the starting third baseman next year. He is under control for two more years.



Luke Voit

Luke Voit has achieved “stud” status as a hitter during his Yankee tenure as starting first baseman, hitting for a 135 OPS+ from 2019-2020, even leading the league in home runs in 2020. The issue with Voit as always been injuries and I think most can confidently say that yet another injury-filled season for Voit was the reason for his down year. Aside from injury, his proneness to whiffing (20.2% swinging strike rate, meaning 1/5 the pitches he saw resulted in whiffs) was another contributor. However, with Anthony Rizzo providing much improved defense and a different hitting approach, as well as the Yankees clearly favoring one over the other down the stretch, I believe Rizzo will be re-signed and the Yankees will look to trade Voit. Career 132 OPS+ hitters with three years of control left (all arbitration) don’t grow on trees, although when they play first base poorly and are injury prone, their value becomes limited. I think the Yankees can get a moderate trade return for Voit.

Aaron Hicks

Aaron Hicks only played in 32 games in 2021, which certainly is the bigger issue than his poor production during those games. Since the start of 2018, when Hicks went into the season as starting centerfielder for the first time, Hicks has only played in 52% of games played by the Yankees—obviously unacceptable. Hicks had a breakout in 2017-2018, combining for 8.2 bWAR in 224 games, leading to a seven-year contract extension. Three years later, he now has four years left. Hicks is a talented enough player (2017-2020 stats: 120 OPS+, 15.1% BB rate, 20.5% K rate, average to below-average centerfield defense, great arm, switch hitter) that I believe the Yankees view him as a contributing piece to the team next year, and I agree. Aside from extreme injury proneness, Hicks’ declining speed (28.5 ft/s spring speed in 2017, 26.9 in 2021) leaves me wondering how much longer he can play center field. Regardless of if he starts in centerfield (which he likely will) or gets hurt (which he likely will), Hicks could be a very valuable super fourth-outfielder.

Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres was the golden child of the Yankees, hitting 38 home runs as a 22 year old in 2019. Since then, the results have taken a major step back, with Torres becoming an average hitter with zapped power. I will talk more about his shortstop defense later. Torres got hot at the end of the year, slashing .305/.350/.445 in the last 36 games of the season, including a seemingly permanent move back to second base on September 12. Brandon Kuty discusses this greatly in this article. With Torres being only 25 next year, and with everyone knowing what his potential is, he will undoubtedly be a starting player heading into next year. On top of that, I think we can all confidently say that he will starting second baseman and that his days as a shortstop are over.



DJ LeMahieu

DJ LeMahieu was arguably the best player on the Yankees in 2019 and 2020, hitting for a 146 OPS+ and a whopping .336 batting average, finishing fourth and third in MVP voting in respective seasons. In 2021, the OPS+ dropped to 97, and while most are content with his drop in power, most were not with his batting average drop to .268. Out of all players who had down years, LeMahieu’s probably hurt the Yankees the most. LeMahieu obviously is not going anywhere after signing a six-year contract, and even with the down year, I think most are okay with him staying around. Of course, he needs to be better, and while he may never be as good as he was in 2019 and 2020, I do expect some sort of a bounce back in 2022. Statcast’s expected metrics show some slight optimism all around (.279 xBA versus .268 BA, .391 xSLG versus .362 SLG, .337 xwOBA, versus .315 wOBA) and his plate discipline (13.8% K rate, 10.8% BB rate) is still refreshing to the lineup. I’m not so sure he will be starting at leadoff, and his role defensively might switch up. Since becoming a Yankee, LeMahieu has played 106 games at first base, 195 at second base, and 109 at third base. With my anticipation of Torres starting at second base and Urshela back at third base, LeMahieu will probably continue to be a super-utility infielder. I envision infield alignments of all types like below:

1B Rizzo, 2B Torres/LeMahieu, SS New Guy, 3B Urshela

1B Rizzo, 2B Torres, SS Urshela/New Guy, 3B LeMahieu

1B LeMahieu, 2B Torres, SS New Guy, 3B Urshela

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