Fantasy Chronicles: Drafting Catchers

No position is trickier to draft than catcher. People value defense greatly over offense when it comes to catcher, and because of the physically demanding nature of the position, they typically don’t play as many games. Only 22 players who primarily played catcher played in 100 or more games; 12 played in 120+. As a product of defensive priorities, only eight of those 22 catchers even hit at an above-average level (OPS+ over 100). Mix lack of playing time with lack of talent and you got a position that lacks players that are actually valuable in fantasy.

Because a good hitting catcher who plays a lot is so rare, it’s going to take a pretty high pick to get one of the elite. There’s really two catchers that stand head-and-shoulders above the rest of the pack: Gary Sanchez and Buster Posey (20 and 59 ADP respectively). Wilson Contreras (53 ADP) is projected as being the third best, who in limited playing time has hit great in his career, with Molina, Perez, and Realmuto getting more points in 2017 with more playing time. Taking Sanchez, Posey, or Contreras so early makes sense; there’s a big drop-off with only four catchers being projected to get 300+ points. At the same time, isn’t the whole goal to have a team that would produce the most points possible? Would it make more sense to draft Gary Sanchez, one of few good at his position, as your second pick and get 358 points out of him, or draft Anthony Rizzo, one of many good at his position, and get 529 points instead? So the big question: what catchers are worth drafting and when?

For the elite three I won’t spend too much time explaining why they’re great. Sanchez has hit 53 homers in 177 games. Posey has played in at least 140 for each of the past six years while slashing .311/.380/.476. Contreras hit 21 homers in only 117 games last season and has the ability to do this. They’re definitely the three best catchers. The three of them are dotted in red:

At their respective ADPs, you’d be overpaying for each of them, but some more than others. It’s pessimistic but a good way to look at this is net ranking (ADP ranking – fantasy points ranking) and try to find who will hurt you the least by drafting them. I’d say Wilson Contreras is an automatic no-no for me. His net ranking is a -80, and you can pick up Buster Posey, a better and less risky hitter, later in the draft. Sanchez is a much better hitter than Contreras but also comes at a way earlier pick. This results in a net ranking of -47, which is daunting but not nearly as much so as Contreras. Then we have Posey with a -19. It still stings a little but it looks like Posey is the guy to draft if you really want to draft one of those three. It also helps that Posey is projected as being the top point-getter at his position.

Note: points doesn't include fielding errors

Looking at this table makes me a bit scared if I’m not able to draft Posey. Perez, Realmuto, and Molina all finished with over 300 points in 2017 so it is very possible that the projections are pretty harsh based off games played. After the big three, Salvador Perez and Russell Martin have the best net rankings. By going off the “who am I overpaying for the least” mentality, Martin is the man, however Perez is projected to have 100 more points than him. The difference in their net rankings is significant but so is their point totals.

For picking the catcher on my team, I got my eyes set on either Posey or Perez. It’ll be hard to pull off considering the two of them or within the top four in ADP at their position, but I shall try my best. My best wishes when it comes to drafting your catcher in 2017.

All stats courteous of Fangraphs.