Sabermiketrics

 Intro Baseball is a hard sport to predict because of all the random variation in it, and that alone probably accounts for like half of sabermetrics. I was curious about how predictive Statcast metrics are and it got me inspired. For this assignment, I looked at the 2017-2021 player-seasons that had at least 200 plate appearances. A lot has been written about how long it takes for Statcast metrics to stabilize, and it turns out they take much, much shorter than other stats like batting average. I’ve read that Statcast metrics stabilize within 70 batted balls (some by 40 even), which a player will easily achieve by the time he’s reached 200 plate appearances. This gives me a sample size of 1548 player-seasons. Statcast’s main metrics are the batted ball ones, such as average and max exit velocity, considering those are the ones that actually need Statcast in order to exist, but any player’s Baseball Savant dashboard will also show plate discipline metrics like out-of-strike-zone swi...

 Ketel Marte Marte was a popular name at the 2021 trade deadline before the Yankees traded for Joey Gallo. However, as Marte enters his last year before free agency, it seems certain that the Diamondbacks will trade him to somebody. Does his fit with the Yankees still make sense? Marte’s primary positions are 2B and CF; with the Yankees already having DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres as their 2B options, his only fit makes sense at centerfield. Currently, Aaron Hicks figures to get most of the playing time at that spot. Marte is an enticing offensive addition to the lineup (slashing .318/.374/.543 in 279 games since 2019, 14% K rate, 7.6% BB rate, switch hitter, 28 years old next year) with similar below-average centerfield defense as Hicks (-3,0, -4 outs above average per the last three seasons for Marte, -2, -4, 1 for Hicks). With Hicks being so injury prone (let alone Marte coming off a rough year of injury), I can see the fit, but I have a feeling Marte makes more sense as a gu...

 Here comes the most fun part: everyone loves to play pretend GM. I’ll refrain from serious trade returns and free agent contracts until Fangraphs posts their player values and free agent contract predictions when the offseason actually begins. I’ll try to order these by how strongly I feel about their fit to the team and likelihood of it happening. Anthony Rizzo It’s worth it to discuss Rizzo first because he seems to be a likely free agent signing, considering his successful half-season with the Yankees. Fans were excited to bring in Rizzo because of his reputation as a great defensive first basemen and to have his lefty bat in a very right-handed lineup. Rizzo didn’t exactly light the world on fire at the plate as a Yankee (.249/.340/.428) but it was plenty to keep everyone satisfied with how much his defense was an upgrade at first base over Luke Voit, plus his low strikeout rate (14%) and two-strike situational hitting was refreshing to the offense. When first acquired from th...

Baserunning A hot topic throughout the year was the insane amount of double plays that they hit into (first in baseball in GIDP% at 13.1%), but I believe it really comes down to speed and not a new poor hitting approach. The Yankees’ groundball% in 2020 was 43.8% and 43.4% in 2021. With runners on base, it was 41% in 2020 and 42.3% in 2021. To me, it comes down to speed. The Yankees always seem to equip some speedsters, such as Tyler Wade, Andrew Velazquez, Estevan Florial, and Tim Locastro, but not quite in guys who get starting playing time. Statcast lists average sprint speed as 27.0 ft/s, and in 2021, of the 14 players who played at least 49 games, nine had a sprint speed less than or equal to 27.0. Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Clint Frazier meanwhile were just slightly above average. Compare this to 2018, when the Yankees were a great baserunning team at 14.6 BsR and had a faster team when Frazier, Judge, Hicks, Stanton, and Torres were younger and with above-average speed. F...

 Some of the weaknesses that are going to be later addressed were compromised heading into the year because we knew those guys were good hitters—until they weren’t. An alarming number of Yankees players took a huge step back compared to their 2019-2020 production: Clint Frazier, Giovanny Urshela, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks, and most notably Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu. Clint Frazier In 108 games from 2019-2020, Clint Frazier hit for a 126 OPS+, while in 2021 he hit for a 76 OPS+ in 66 games before being shut down for the season due to neurological problems and dizziness. Between Frazier’s down year and a more crowded outfield of Gallo, Judge, a returning Hicks, and a possible return of veteran Brett Gardner, I don’t envision Frazier playing a big role on this team in 2022. With his trade value at an all-time low, I fully anticipate him starting the season in the minor leagues but because of his first year in arbitration, he is a non-tenure candidate. I could be completely off-base...

 In some ways, the Yankee season was a tale of two halves. The first half saw a 46-42 record that had a lot of fans seriously concerned about the state of the team. The team had just a .236 batting average (ranked 17 th in baseball), .323 on base percentage (9 th ), and a meager .394 slugging percentage (17 th ). On top of the hitting woes, there was gut-punch after gut-punch loss, such as the sweep against the Tigers, the Jared Walsh grand slam game, the one-hitter in Seattle, the Subway Seriesat Yankee Stadium , and the Jose Altuve walk-off in Houston . The second half was much more productive and put the Yankees back on track towards the postseason. A 46-27 record will do that. However, the offensive performance was still concerning; clutch play and resilience to win one-run games is what really drove this stretch. In the second half the Yankees still hit just .239 (25 th ) with a .322 on base (13 th ) and .422 slugging percentage (14 th ). Aside from occasional hot streaks ...